Public forecast records
Write the forecast first,
then check what happened.
This is the first batch. Its first full-review date will be announced after the batch reaches its deadline.
Prospective observations of news and public figures. Subjects, deadlines and scoring rules are fixed in advance. Every forecast is reviewed, including errors.
View all recordsRegistered in advance
Original posts and batch receipts are public before the observation window. Code identities are fixed in advance.
Check against original criteria
Events, deadlines and exclusions are written first. Reviews link to evidence.
Review the entire batch
Matches, misses, unclear results and withdrawals remain visible.
The register uses the original published criteria. Existing English translations are shown below; original receipts remain unchanged.
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Reliable birth data does not establish predictive ability. Any additional predictive value requires prospective testing; we make no accuracy claim.
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Submit details for a free reading →The combined-method and news-only numbers are two advance subjective estimates of the same event, shown together for later comparison. They are not historical accuracy rates, and one result cannot establish which method performs better.
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